Real Estate Seasonality Is No More

The opportunity to take advantage of what we are seeing in the rate market has not stopped since the Federal Reserve cut rates. Many potential homebuyers have benefitted from the opportunity to take on today’s low mortgage rates. American’s have been motivated at some of the highest levels they have ever been. And coming into the winter, this doesn’t look like your typical winter slowdown. From research by experts, there are more buyers wanting to move now than ever, which has helped to create an unusually strong housing market for this winter. Let us start by saying, the real estate seasonality has disappeared for the time being.

2021 Winter Season In Real Estate

Once the fall season wraps up in the coming weeks, there are many experts predicting a winter sales surge coming this year. This does not look to benefit first-time or first-gen homebuyers, as inventory will remain historically low, especially in markets like Louisville, Kentucky. There are many market economists that believe that the real estate industry will continue to lead. The current seller’s market has maintained momentum throughout the past two years. Here are some experts thoughts on the momentum heading into the new year.

Chief Economist at NAR, Lawrence Yun, had this to say about the winter season:

“This solid buying is a testament to demand still being relatively high, as it is occurring during a time when inventory is still markedly low. The notable gain in October assures that total existing-home sales in 2021 will exceed 6 million, which will shape up to be the best performance in 15 years.” 

Deputy Chief Economist, Odeta Kushi, of First American Bank said this:

“So far in November, purchase applications point to another strong month in sales. Still low rates and demographic demand support this strength, even as affordability and inventory headwinds remain.”

According to The M Report that tracks real estate and mortgages,

“The demand for housing in the United States has reached a fever pitch, a trend that opposes the norm of this time of the year when the market cools as the winter months set in.”

Finally, Chief Economist of First American Bank, Mark Fleming, said:

“Strong demographic demand will continue to act as the wind in the housing market’s sails.”

Real Estate Seasonality Implications

There are still active buyers who have been waiting for inventory to pick up. According to Showing Time data, a showing company, buyers are still around and highly motivated. These buyers are competing for many of the same homes, leading to multiple offers on homes and often times bidding wars. With such strong demand and momentum coming off the fall season, there are no signs pointing to much of a slowdown in the winter. This is contradictory to usual real estate markets, which see significant decreases in activity around the holidays and into the new year. As we saw in 2020, there was very little seasonality. In fact, home prices increased in the winter more than they did in Q3 and Q4 in 2021. In many ways, it looks like 2022 will be much of a repeat of the 2020-2021 winter season.

Concluding On Real Estate Seasonality

While many people are betting on a slower real estate market this winter and in 2022, they may be awfully mistaken. If you are looking to buy a home, sell a home, or both, there might not be a better time than this winter. Sellers are still receiving multiple offers and strong competition this winter. Reaching out to the Premier Homes Team or a real estate professional is your best bet to navigating this market. If you are a buyer looking for homes near Louisville, KY, check out our listing website.