A Winter Home Sale Surge

If you have been in or around the real estate market, you should know that the market has its seasonality. Throughout the winter months, especially from the week of Thanksgiving to the week after Christmas, real estate slows down. Like most industries, there are peak months or quarters based on buying cycles. Car sales tend to pick up in the spring months, and retail stores do most of their revenue in Q4. Real estate is not excluded in the seasonality shifts. However, there is talk that there could be a home sale surge this winter.

The Home Sale Surge in 2020

As we saw in the last quarter of 2020, real estate seasonality might be out of the picture. While this year has already seen a slowdown in these final months, it is not as slow as before the pandemic. Throughout the past years, home sales have surged in the early spring months. However, with the pandemic impacting the real estate market in early 2020, the surge came in the winter. Last fall and winter there was a dramatic increase in home sales in Q4 than years before.

The one factor that held back the real estate market to start the pandemic was supply. This is still the case today, which is leading many experts to believe that this winter may be no different. As supply picks up in the winter months, buyers who have been waiting months to find a house will have options. Once the supply is increased in the winter months, buyers will likely funnel in. This could look to create another winter home sale surge like the one we saw in 2020.

Were Experts Wrong?

In the beginning months of the year, experts thought that the real estate market would run hot until the winter months of 2021. Many experts implied that seasonality would return to the real estate market. Both the number of qualified buyers and the number of homes available were said to fall by the winter months. However, there is widespread data showing this may not be the case. The number of buyers will likely remain higher than average, while the inventory remains at all time lows. With buyer demand remaining extremely strong, it is beginning to show that the uncharacteristic market looks to continue. Be on the lookout for another winter home sale surge, albeit slower than the last years.

Home Sale Surge Research

Buyer demand remains strong in many of the major markets, including Louisville, Kentucky. According to data from the Showing Index by ShowingTime, showings are indicating that buyers are still out there. These buyers are out there in statistically high numbers, as well. With the number of showings in September 2021 higher than any of the past years besides 2020, buyers seem to still be looking. If you look at the graph below, you will notice the higher the index, the greater the demand for buyers is.

Another popular listing service that isn’t named Zillow is realtor.com. According to research done internally by realtor.com, buyer activity remains strong. Existing home sales look to continue to outpace the years prior, except from the record high in 2020. “New housing data shows 2021’s feverish home sales pace broke a yearly record in October, . . . with last month marking the eighth straight month of buyers snatching up homes more quickly than the fastest pace in previous years. . . .”

Sellers are also looking to continue their homes. While in a normal market, sellers wait until the spring to list, this year looks different. According to research, homeowners are thinking about not waiting until the spring to sell. Many sellers are actually open to listing during the winter, despite recent year macro-economic trends. According to George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research at realtor.com, “The pandemic has delayed plans for many Americans, and homeowners looking to move on to the next stage of life are no exception. Recent survey data suggests the majority of prospective sellers are actively preparing to enter the market this winter.”

Statistics To Back Up The Home Sale Surge

Some statistics for you stats nerds (according to the same independent research from realtor.com):

Homeowners planning to enter the market in the next year:

• 65% – Plan to list this winter
  • 19% – Have just listed
  • 93% – Have already taken steps toward listing their home,
  • 28% – Are working with an agent
  • 36% – Have researched the value of their home and others in their neighborhood
  • 36% – Have started making repairs or decluttering

The report also discusses the reasons sellers want to move:

• 33% – Have realized they want different home features
• 37% – Say their home no longer meets their family’s needs
• 32% – Want to move closer to friends and family
• 23% – Are looking for a home office

Use A Professional

If you are thinking of buying or selling your home, check out the Premier Homes Team guide to getting started. There is extended research to encourage you to use a real estate professional when doing so. At Premier Homes Team, we will gladly help anyone from first-time buyers to sellers of any property. Get a head start on looking at available homes in your area of Kentucky at www.cityguidelouisville.com.